Dubai · 24 October 2026
Dubai property market, third quarter 2026
Home sales were quieter than the record quarters of 2025. The headline total depends on which cut of the Dubai Land Department register you read.
Dubai did not stop selling homes in the third quarter of 2026. It stopped matching the record quarters of 2025. Anyone quoting a single dirham total is choosing a filter. The Dubai Land Department register is the source. Consultancies then decide what counts as a home.
Three readings of the same quarter
Cavendish Maxwell, on 6 October 2026, put residential sales at more than AED 72.6 billion across about 34,000 transactions. Projectory’s reading of DLD home sales, published 16 October, counted 34,002 sales worth AED 67.42 billion. Prop971, limiting the cut to apartments, villas and townhouses sold through market procedures, counted 32,385 sales worth AED 56.0 billion, with a median price of AED 1.15 million. Same city, same months, different rules. We will not pretend they are one number.
Against last year
The drop is not in dispute, even if the percentage moves with the filter. Cavendish Maxwell said values were down 47% and transactions down 38% on the third quarter of 2025. Projectory’s home-sale cut was down 38.2% in sales and 49.5% in value on that quarter. Prop971’s residential cut a year earlier was 50,412 sales and AED 101.2 billion, against 32,385 and AED 56.0 billion this year. For the first nine months, Cavendish Maxwell put sales values near AED 292 billion from 112,580 purchases, down 27% in value and 23% in volume on the same stretch of 2025.
What changed inside the quarter
Projectory says ready homes did the supporting work. Ready sales rose to 9,378, 27.6% of transactions, and AED 22.82 billion of value. Off-plan fell to 24,624 sales and AED 44.61 billion. Homes priced under AED 1 million were 41.4% of sales, up from 35.1% in the second quarter. The median registered price in that cut was AED 1.17 million, and the median price per square foot was AED 1,673. Buyers did not leave. More of them bought a finished home, and more of them bought under a million.
How we use it
A slower registration quarter is not a reason to ignore a good stack, and it is not a reason to pay 2025’s launch premium. We price the unit against current asks and against what DLD has actually registered nearby. If you need to sell inside a year, Dubai’s book is still deeper than Sharjah’s. If you need the coupon, read the yield guide before you believe a brochure.
Sources
- Cavendish Maxwell, 6 October 2026. Residential sales above AED 72.6 billion and about 34,000 transactions in Q3 2026. Off-plan was 72% of purchases and 65% of value. Year to date: nearly AED 292 billion from 112,580 purchases. Values down 47% and volumes down 38% on Q3 2025.
- Projectory, analysis of Dubai Land Department data, 16 October 2026. 34,002 home sales, AED 67.42 billion. Ready sales 9,378 (AED 22.82 billion). Off-plan 24,624 (AED 44.61 billion). Median price AED 1.17 million. Median price per square foot AED 1,673.
- Prop971 Research, Q3 2026. DLD open data limited to residential market sales of apartments, villas and townhouses: 32,385 sales, AED 56.0 billion, median price AED 1.15 million. Q3 2025 on the same cut: 50,412 sales, AED 101.2 billion.